The USDJPY has tried to move above its 100 hour moving average at 138.457 (blue line on the chart below). The price moved above that moving average during trading yesterday, and could not sustain the momentum. Today, the price tried again but again failed. Getting and staying above that level is key if the buyers are to take more control going forward. Absent that and the buyers are trying, but failing.
On the downside, the key support down near the 100 and 200-day moving averages near 137.06 (blue and green lines on the chart below), and a swing area on the daily chart between 137.499 and 138.139 would be targeted (see red numbered circles on the chart below).
Overall, there is key support that has held on the daily chart (at 100/200 day MAs), but buyers still need to take more control by getting and staying above its 100-hour moving average.
UPDATE: Bank of Japan's Ueda just stated that there is still some distance to go in order to achieve the sustainable 2% inflation target. He mentioned that the BOJ has been maintaining an accommodative policy and indicated that unless the assumption regarding the need to achieve the inflation target changes, the narrative on monetary policy will not change. These comments suggest that Ueda is not inclined to change the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy at the end of the month. As a result of his remarks, the yen is weakening (the USDJPY is breaking higher). The price is NOW above the 100-hour MA at 138.457. That is now a close risk level for the pair. Stay above tilts the bias in favor of the buyers.