The USDJPY on Friday fell below the 38.2% of the move up from the low last week at 129.597, but rebounded into the close and settled above that retracement level at 129.738.
Today after an initial bounce in the Asian session, the price rotated back to the downside and retested the 38.2% retracement at 129.597. Buyers leaned against that the level and bought. The subsequent move to the upside into the European session saw the price stall near the last swing high from Friday's trade at 130.491.
The move lower into the early North American session cracked below a bottom side trendline but stayed above the 38.2% retracement. That retracement level is support.
Clearly the up and down action is consolidating the price action seen of late. There is support near the 38.2% retracement. There is resistance near a intraday swing highs from Friday and again today. There are other targets above and below on breaks above those levels.
On the downside, should the 38.2% retracement break, the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line) at 129.306 (and moving higher) along with the 50% of the range last week (it was also the swing high from April 22) at 129.088 would be the next downside targets. Below that the 200 hour moving average at 128.344 would be targeted.
Last week the price did fall below the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above) for the first time since April 1 on Tuesday, but that break failed and the move back higher, reestablished the 200 hour moving average as support on Wednesday. Ultimately, if the sellers are to start to take back more control in the intermediate term, getting below the hourly moving averages is required.
On the topside, moving above the 130.491 level would have traders looking toward the natural resistance at 131.000 followed by the high from last week at 131.246. Last week's high was the highest level going back to April 2002. The high price in 2002 into reached 135.160. That high was the highest level since October 1998 to put the numbers into perspective.
