Recall from yesterday, the price action in the USDJPY was up and down in a relatively narrow trading range (Friday's trade was also up and down). The high price did find sellers against its 100 hour moving average (blue line) and near a swing area between 113.95 and 114.028. That kept the sellers more control .
Today, that swing area and 100 hour moving average were both broken to the upside. A tilt to the upside.
However, sellers leaned ahead of its falling 200 hour moving average currently at 114.185 (and moving lower). Sellers pushed the price back below its 100 hour moving average currently at 113.975 and thwarted the effort by the buyers to take more control.
After reaching a low of 113.774, the price is currently back up retesting that 100 hour moving average.
Neutralizing the bias somewhat at least in the short term, is that the recent lows from yesterday and again today are higher. As mentioned the last low came in at 113.774. That was higher than the Asian session low at 113.66. The lows today are also higher than the lows from yesterday's trade.
So there is some modest dip buying going on.
Having said that, however, the moving averages still remain a topside lid for the pair. It would take a move above each to increase the bullish bias. Absent that and the sellers and momentum still more in favor of the downside for this pair, despite the modest dip buying.
A move below 113.77 and 113.66 have traders looking toward the double bottom from January 14 and yesterday's trade near 113.462. Below that and the rising 100 day moving average at 113.307 will be another key target that if broken would increase the bearish bias going forward.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, although the bias remains to the downside in the month of January, and the price still needs to get above the 100 hour moving average and 200 hour moving average to tilt the bias more in favor of the buyers, the 100 day moving average blue line currently at 113.307) below remains a key target to get to and through to increase that bearish bias. Also near that level is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 113.430. That is near the low prices from yesterday and last week.
So short term, the bias is more to the downside while longer term, getting below the 100 day moving average is still needed to increase the bearish bias from that perspective..
