The USDJPY has extended above the 200 hour MA in trading today as the clock ticks to the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points. The BOJ kept rates unchanged at their meeting last week (see weekend video - "Three down. Three to go"). The US yields are higher today helping the USDJPY push higher. The 2 year is up 7.3 basis points to 4.493%. The 10 year yield is at 4.0478%, up 3.9 basis points.
Looking at the hourly chart above, the USDJPY moved above and below the 100 hour MA on Friday and closed just above that MA level on Friday (see blue line in the chart above).
In the early Asian session today, the low reached 147.37 and remained above that 100 hour MA at 147.31(at that time). The 100 hour MA is now at 147.192 and flattening (see blue line). The subsequent rise to the upside today extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 21 high at 147.71, but initially fell short of the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above). After correcting down toward the 38.2% and holding support, buyers returned and were able to extend the GBPUSD price above the 200 hour moving average at 148.33.
The price has stayed above that 200 hour moving average line over the last 6 trading bars. The price is also extended above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the October 21 high at 148.518. That is a close support/risk level for intraday traders. Stay above is more bullish.
On the topside, the 61.8% retracement of the same move down comes at 149.325.
As I've mentioned in other videos and posts, the central bank fundamentals support a higher USDJPY. However technicals can take control. Last week, the move away from the 200 hour moving average on Tuesday near 148.90 (after two failed breaks on Monday and earliers on Tuesday), was a technical break that attracted sellers and hurt the buyers. The low price moved all the way to 145.098 before starting the rebound on Thursday and into Friday.
The technical picture would deteriorate now on a break back below the 50% retracement AND the 200 hour moving average. From there, getting below the 38.2% retracement (at 147.71) and the 100 hour moving average (at 147.19) would be the next steps in the downward direction if the sellers are able to survive this current push to the upside.