The USDJPY high today in the Asian-Pacific session stalled against the high from yesterday and set a ceiling area between 146.299 and 146.40.
Sellers took the price down to - and through - the 100-hour moving average, on its way toward its rising 200-hour moving average. The low price today got within 8 or so pips of that moving average before bouncing back to the upside into the US opening hours. That move took the price back above its 100-hour moving average currently at 145.829. The buyers were back in control.
More recently, however, the price has rotated back to the downside and has traded back below its 100-hour moving average. That has now taken the price between the 200-hour moving average below and the 100-hour moving average above and into more neutral territory.
Needless to say, the price tested the 200-hour moving average last Friday and moved toward that moving average earlier today only to find early buyers. Getting below the 200-hour moving average is step one for a more bearish bias. Once that is broken focus will turn toward the 144.88 to 145.10 area. Get below that level and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up in August comes into focus at 144.624.
Those are the progressive steps and hurdles that would need to be taken (and broken) to increase the bearish bias.
Conversely, a move back above the 100-hour moving average and the 145.90 level (is a key level on the daily chart), puts the buyers back in control in the short term, and hopes will again shift toward the 146.299 – 146.40 area and the high price from last week's trading at 146.554.
To review my recent video on the pair, it is included in the video below (from earlier this morning).