Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar has been gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia.
Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for example.
That could explain the recent USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync with this view, so it could be just noise.
For now, we can only work with data and today we get the US retail sales and jobless claims figures which will likely be market moving. The key events though will be in November when we get the October data and the US election.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is probing once again above the 149.40 level with the buyers trying to extend the rally into the 152.00 handle. The price action remains pretty choppy but we can expect the sellers to step back in if the price were to fall below the 149.40 level.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action which has been showing a slowing down in the bullish momentum ahead of the 150.00 handle. There’s not much we can glean from this chart as the rangebound price action around the key 149.40 level makes it harder to find clean levels where to lean onto.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the 149.40 level is acting as kind of a barometer with the price staying above it being more bullish and below it being more bearish. Today we get the US retail sales and jobless claims figures which should be market moving. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we have the US Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims data, while tomorrow we conclude with the Japanese CPI.