Fundamental Overview
Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY pulled back to the major trendline. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 152.00 support.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action with some consolidation now around the trendline. There’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce and a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target the 152.00 support.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see even better the recent price action with multiple spikes below the trendline. Again, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce and the sellers for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
This week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Japanese and US PMIs.