Fundamental Overview
The USD has been overall rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. All else being equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without inflationary pressures.
Even if the US Dollar weakens against the other major currencies, the JPY in this environment should keep losing ground and the Japanese officials can’t do much to reverse the trend unless the fundamentals change. We will likely need weak US growth data to see some sustained Yen strength, although it might be short lived if it’s not enough to make the market to price in more aggressive rate cuts for the Fed.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to rally as the break of the key 160.00 handle and the lack of intervention gave the buyers more confidence to target new highs.
If we get a pullback into the 160.00 level, we can expect the buyers to step back in with a defined risk below the level to target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 160.00 handle to gain more conviction and start targeting the major trendline around the 157.00 handle.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline defining the current upward momentum. The buyers continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will need to see the price breaking below the trendline to position for a pullback into the 160.00 handle.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see a very clean uptrend with the price bouncing on the trendline before making new highs. All else being equal, we should keep seeing the same but if the price were to break below the trendline, the sellers will likely take some near-term control and provide a pullback into the 160.00 handle. The white lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow is going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.