The FOMC is not the only central bank meeting today. The Bank of Canada is also meeting and will announce their rate decision at 10 AM ET with the press conference from Tiff Macklem starting at 10:30 AM ET (will be joined by Senior Deputy Rogers).
The market pricing is tilting toward a 25 basis point hike on the back of higher inflation (4.8% - 30 year high) and runaway housing market. The USDCAD is lower (CAD higher)ahead of that decision. Of course the FOMC rate decision will also take place later today which will muddy the water for traders. So be careful.
What are the charts saying? What key levels are in play?
Looking at the broader daily chart above, the price has moved back below its 100 day moving average currently at 1.26179, but is also comfortably above its 200 day moving average at 1.24995 (call it the nice round 1.2500 level). The price is currently trading at 1.25859.
A move back above the 100 day moving average would tilt the bias more in the direction of the buyers/bulls. Conversely stay below the 100 day moving average and move below the 200 day moving average would be more bearish.
Earlier this month, the price try to extend back below the 200 day moving average for the first time since November, but failed on the two separate tries. If the price can get back below, would the "third time be the charm"? Traders would be using that level to define risk on a break.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the corrective move this week did find resistance against the 50% midpoint of the move down from the December 20 high near 1.27054. That has led to a step down with the price moving below the 100 hour moving average and testing a swing area between 1.2563 and 1.2577. The low stalled ahead of its rising 200 hour moving average at 1.25455.
Through the decision, the hourly moving averages will be bias defining levels. If the price can stay above the 100 hour moving average at 1.2579 and extend above the 100 day moving average 1.26179, the bias would be more bullish.
Conversely, moving below the 200 hour moving average 1.25455 would next target the 100 day moving average at 1.24995. The lows for the month came in between 1.24476 and 1.24525 (there were three). A break of that floor, will have traders wondering if "four times is the charm" from the hourly chart perspective.
