— Japan Q2 Annualized Real GDP Revised Up To +1.5% From +0.4%
— Japan Q2 Capex Revised Up Sharply To +1.5% Q/Q From +0.5%
— Japan Q2 Domestic Demand Contribution Revised Up To Flat Vs -0.2 Pt
— Japan Q2 Net Export Contribution Unrevised at +0.3 Pt Q/Q
— Japan Q2 Private Consumption Unrevised at +0.0% Q/Q
— Japan Q2 Private Inventory Contribution Revised To -0.1 Pt Vs -0.2 Pt
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s economy expanded a real 0.4% in April-June
from the previous quarter, revised up sharply from a preliminary 0.1%
gain in line with economist forecasts, as business investment turned out
to be much stronger and private-sector inventory drawdowns smaller than
initially estimated, Cabinet Office data release on Friday showed.
Still, the pace of the economic recovery lost some steam from
unusually strong quarter-on-quarter growth rates of +1.2% in
January-March and +0.9% in October-December 2009
On an annualized basis, GDP grew 1.5% in April-June, also revised
up sharply from a preliminary 0.4% growth, but slower than +5.0% in the
first quarter of this year and +3.4% in the final quarter of last year.
The real GDP growth was above the economy’s potential growth rate,
estimated somewhere about 0.5%, for the third consecutive quarter.
Economists expected the second preliminary GDP figures to be
revised up from the initial reading following the outcome of the latest
quarterly survey by the Ministry of Finance released on Sept. 3.
The MOF survey showed that on a seasonally-adjusted,
quarter-over-quarter basis, capex excluding spending on software rose
6.4% in April-June after an upwardly revised 1.0% fall in January-March
(previously -2.6%).
The Cabinet Office uses this key piece of demand-side data to
calculate revisions to first preliminary GDP, which is based only on
supply side capex information.
From a year earlier, Q2 real GDP rose an upwardly revised 2.4% (vs.
preliminary +2.0%) after rising 4.7% in the first quarter of 2010.
The latest estimates for private non-residential investment, or
capex, was revised up sharply to +1.5% quarter-on-quarter from the +0.5%
initially reported, pushing up the overall economic growth by 0.2
percentage point, instead of 0.1 point as previously estimated.
The negative contribution of private inventories to Q2 GDP was
revised up to -0.1 percentage point from a preliminary -0.2 percentage
point.
The contribution of domestic demand to the second quarter GDP was
revised up to about flat (+0.04 percentage point) from the -0.22
percentage point originally reported.
The contribution of net exports was unrevised at a positive 0.3
percentage point.
Government consumption was revised up to +0.3% q/q from +0.2%,
pushing up the overall growth by 0.1 percentage point, instead of making
no contribution.
The key points of the latest GDP data:
– Exports were unrevised at +5.9% q/q (vs. +7.0% in Q1), boosting
the overall growth by 0.9 percentage point.
– Imports were revised down to +4.1% q/q from +4.3% (vs. +3.0% in
Q1) in Q2 but their negative contribution remained at -0.5 percentage
point.
– Private consumption was unrevised at flat q/q (vs. +0.5% in Q1).
– Private capital expenditures were revised up sharply to +1.5% q/q
from a preliminary +0.5% in Q2 (vs. revised +0.8% in Q1).
In nominal terms the economy fell 0.6% (vs. a preliminary -0.9%) in
the April-June quarter after a revised 1.6% rise in the previous
quarter.
The data continue to show that in fiscal 2009, which ended at the
end of March, Japan’s economy contracted for the second straight fiscal
year. For the whole of fiscal 2009, real GDP shrank by an unrevised 1.9,
following the 3.7% fall in fiscal 2008.
tokyo@marketnews.com
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