Bitcoin fell hard on Tuesday but stabilized yesterday and has rebounded somewhat today. It was last up 3.3% to $67,959.
Zooming out, the chart is wedging in a narrowing range between $60,000 and $73,000. It's right in the middle of that now and appears to be directionless. The inflows into ETFs are no longer a catalyst and eyes are on the halvening, which is estimated for April 20.
I would expect to see a breakout around that date. One to the upside should easily get to $100K or close while a downside break may target $50,000. There's a good chance of a sell-the-fact trade similar to the ETF launch, when bitcoin fell 20% but it will depend on how much hype and front-running there is into the event.
As for the bigger picture, the recent strong correlation between the bitcoin and Nasdaq has faded somewhat. I would expect those to recoonect at some point and today's gains in both are a sign that quarter-end was part of the reason for the skew.
