The bitcoin bulls are having their moment as it climbs 6% on the hype from the first day of trading. Market watchers will be seeing how much money flows into each of the bitcoin ETFs and how much stays in the Grayscale GBTC Trust now that it's convered into a proper ETF.
I think those numbers are going to be hard to truly interpret but I also suspect that numbers will be cherrypicked to spin a story. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas predicted $4 billion in AUM on day one. That sound incredibly low to me given that Canadian ETFs pulled in $480m in the first two days of trading (and Canada is one-tenth the size of the US, plus has a much smaller GDP per capita and its markets don't have global reach).
I'd put the over-under closer to $15 billion but there's already $30 billion in Grayscale and how that flows is the real question for me.
As for pricing, bitcoin touched $49,051 at the high but has since pulled back $500. I could see a tag of $50,000 as the kind of event that would trigger profit taking.
