Yesterday, the price of bitcoin moved up to test a topside swing area high AND the 50% of the move down from the September 12 high (see post here). That level came in at $20469. The high price reached $20411 - just below that target - and backed off.
The move lower off the high at $20411, saw the price move back down to test the broken 38.2% of the same move down at $19923. The low reached $19971 just above that target. Buyers returned and pushed back higher.
Today, the price was able to extend above the 50% and for most of the day - stay above that 50% level. The high reached the 61.8% of the same move lower at $21014. The high for the day reached $21012. Sellers leaned and the price has wandered back lower. The current price trades at $20716.
Now that the price of bitcoin has been able to get outside the shorter term ups and downs, what does the daily chart look like? What are the technicals saying on that chart?
The chart below is the daily chart and looking at it, highlights, the confined trading range that the pair has been mired in since September 12. The digital currency has been hardly moving. There is certainly room to roam.
Also of significance is the 100 day MA is currently at $20910. The high price today reached above that level to $21012, $102 above the MA level. However, the break could not be sustained on the first look since September 12 and 13. The price at $20716 is below that MA level.
What now?
If the buyers are to finish what they have started by getting above the 50% of the move down from September high on the hourly chart, the price NEEDS to get above the 100 day MA and stay above that key MA barometer. The last two attempts in September and before that in August could only move above for two days. This is the 3rd try.
Tomorrow will give traders the 2nd shot to move above that 100 day MA and stay above. Failure to do so, and it looks like August. It looks like September. Conversely, if the price can get and stay above the 100 day MA, the buyers have their shot to build on the break.
So overall, the buyers are making a play off the hourly chart. The price action in bitcoin has been non trending. There is room to break and run. However, if it is to happen, there is work to do. Getting and staying above the 100 day MA is required. Absent that, and the buyers are not winning. They are trying but they are not winning.
On the downside, if on a correction, the price can stay above the 50% level at $20469, the buyers are still in play. Move below and all bets for the buyers. They had their shots. They missed.
