The “Emerging Markets” or “EM” term refers to nations undergoing a transition between a 'developing' and 'developed' status. Countries classified as 'emerging' often had several years of robust economic growth, expecting to grow rapidly continuously. Furthermore, they could be undergoing a period of political, social, and demographic transition, which inevitably makes them easier to integrate with other economies globally. The countries most commonly recognised as emerging markets include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – collectively known as 'BRICS.'
Since the turn of the century, emerging markets have remarkably upgraded their macroeconomic policies, allowing them to double their per capita incomes on average. In 65% of the nations classified as emerging markets, monetary policies are based on forward-looking inflation targeting, and inflation has dropped and stabilised in most of them. Fiscal guidelines govern several countries' public finances. Following the financial crisis of the 1990s, many people supported extensive banking changes. The global financial crisis of 2008–09 slowed but did not deter progress.
This financial track record aided emerging market governments in implementing bold steps during the pandemic without jeopardising market trust. Increased government expenditure, liquidity support for enterprises and banks, the release of bank capital buffers to promote lending, and asset purchase programs by central banks to calm domestic markets were among the economic relief measures.
Equities had been affected in February 2020 by falling an exceptional 20% in value within a mere 19 days of trading. After a short-lived period of financial stress in March 2020, most emerging markets were able to return to global financial markets and issue new debt to meet their financing needs.
As per J.P. Morgan, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index beat the S&P 500 for the first time since 2017 (EM gained +18.5 percent vs +18.4 percent for the S&P 500). Furthermore, Asian developing markets were the best-performing equities markets in the world, with China, Taiwan, and Korea all up about +40% on the year (in U.S. dollar terms).
As the pandemic is not over yet, it is too early to say which measures have worked. In most emerging markets, economic activity shrank considerably in 2020. However, according to the IMF's April 2021 World Economic Outlook, the global GDP drop would have been three times worse if policy measures had not been implemented around the world, particularly in advanced economies and emerging markets.
Is now the right time to invest in EM Currencies?
JP Morgan stated: "Putting it all together, we've come to the conclusion that emerging markets are our top trade idea for 2021." A still-improving global economy reinforces the expectation for EM currencies to outperform this year, solid demand for technology, excellent virus control, a somewhat falling US currency, and a more predictable route for US-China tensions.
Emerging Market currencies have indeed been gaining more interest from investors during 2021 as they give them the opportunity to diversify their portfolios.
How can you invest in Emerging Market Currecies?
The first step would be to open an account with a licenced CFD broker that offers Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) and Emerging Markets FX (EMFX) trading.
A great example of a broker that is at the forefront of the NDF & EMFX revolution and has been instrumental in being part of the retail NDF market expansion, is Sheer Markets, a financial institution offering steaming retail NDF CFDs alongside more than 1,900 CFD trading instruments, including Forex/EMFX, Non Deliverable Forwards (NDFs), Indices, Stocks, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies.
Sheer Markets clients have now access to EMFX trading through MetaTrader 5 trading platform. For more information on Sheer Markets and EM Currencies / EMFX trading, click here.
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