There are a couple of events to watch out for in the next 90 minutes.
After the closing bell Apple reports first quarter earnings. I don’t see it as a big risk but tech has been the major laggard in the bull market in 2013 and a big quarter from Apple could turn it around and help risk trades.
On the other hand, a weak quarter is probably a non-event because the market has rallied despite a 40% fall in Apple shares this year.
The other event to watch is the RBNZ decision at 2100 GMT (5 pm ET). There isn’t an economist who is forecasting a change from the 2.50% target rate. The market sees the RBNZ on the sidelines for the remainder of the year and is pricing a 42% chance of a single 25-bps hike in the coming 12 months.
RBNZ Governor Wheeler habitually calls the New Zealand dollar overvalued so that shouldn’t be a shock. He has already played the intervention card as well.
I struggle to see how the RBNZ could weaken the kiwi but they have surely been thinking hard about clever ways to do it. My inclination would be sell NZD ahead of the decision but the risk/reward isn’t spectacular.
