The NAB Business conditions measure for August is also announced, comes in at -6
- prior was -7
This is a big jump in confidence (6th largest jump ever). As I said earlier:
Its the confidence (and conditions) numbers from NAB that are the most focus, although with the survey conducted in the middle of the election campaign and a new government now elected their importance is diminished. Next month’s survey should reflect a boost in optimism.
This jump in confidence shown in the figures reflects the near-certainty that the Abbott government was going to win, and provide a boost in optimism. Confidence coming back in early.
There are a number of factors now lining up for the AUD:
- Recent data from China suggest the economy has stabilized
- Commodities prices starting to bounce a little
- Perceptions that the RBA easing cycle may have finished
- Emerging markets seemingly out of the grip of panic
- Australia’s new government should provide a boost to optimism, at least during the ‘honeymoon’ period
- Looks like the ‘taper’, while imminent, will be small only
