Why we publish poll results
Trading isn’t about forecasting what will happen; it’s about forecasting what will happen relative to what’s expected.
The reason cable has been so strong since May isn’t because the economy is suddenly stronger than the US. It’s not. The UK economy has underperformed the US this year.
The UK will grow about 1.1% this year which means nothing unless you know what was priced into the market. There is no method to tell exactly what the market is expecting so traders look at polls and forecasts. The consensus six months ago was that UK growth would be below 1% and that US growth was accelerating. The consensus was wrong and that’s why the market has moved.
As a trader, polls are one of the most valuable things you can find because they give you a sense of what other people think and what the market thinks. If you disagree, great, now you have a reason to make a trade.
Here is what to do when economists say they 'still' believe in something
