April is the month with some of the strongest seasonal patterns of the year. We take a look at some of the seasonal patterns that stand out in the forex market and elsewhere.
#4: The euro springs in Spring
April has been the best month for the euro, on average since inception. Over the past 10 years it’s been the third-best month.
This trade would be higher on the list but there’s a major caveat: It’s the best month on average but the euro has only risen in 4 of the past 9 years. It’s either a +2% gain or a small loss.
The fundamentals will be key here and it starts on Thursday with the ECB decision. I don’t expect Draghi to be overly dovish and that’s a catalyst for euro strength but he may also salt his comments with words designed to weigh on the euro because the German export power cabal ECB doesn’t want to see the pair break 1.40.
