They went short at 1.3780 and on their last report (17th March) were worried about the possibility of breaking 1.40 if the ECB stood still.
In the latest update (via our friends at EFX) they still favour the downside noting that the euro has been capped despite the ECB leaving policy unchanged and Draghi seemingly becoming more worried about inflation. They mention too that Draghi has maybe put more importance on the exchange rate and that while it isn’t directly a policy target, further upside unmatched with further growth could see the them looking to act.
I’ve liked keeping tabs on this trade because to me it highlights an important part of trading. Despite one’s position it always pays to constantly assess the risks to your trade even if it makes bad reading. Being able to assess and see the pitfalls and what can turn your trade sour can mean the big difference to bailing out into a small loss or holding onto a bigger one.
I’m trading against them on this, as you may know (scaled longs from 1.3860).
