The last thing the US dollar needs today is more dovish commentary.

  • Eventually after the Fed raises rates, we’ll have to unwind much of the balance sheet growth
  • Inflation to rise gradually to 2% as the economy nears full employment
  • Employment to fall to 5.5% by the end of 2015
  • Real GDP to grow ‘a bit above’ 3% in 2015, 2016
  • Sees real GDP above 3% for the rest of 2014
  • US economy is “looking a lot better”

A don’t know how Williams can make a forecast without blushing. The Fed as a whole has been terrible but a year ago, Williams was forecasting 3.25% growth in 2014 — now it will be tough to hit 2%. Is he using that same broken model to predict 3% growth next year?