August is the true start of the Atlantic hurricane season and trouble in the Gulf of Mexico often means oil price surges. Or does it?
Over the last 9 years, August, Sept, Oct and Nov are the only months on the calendar where crude averages a decline. Stretching it out over 30 years shows a better result (especially in August high is the best month of the year) but the recent history suggests that better forecasts on hurricanes and broader US supply logistics are diminishing the effect.
WTI crude oil seasonals
At some point there will be a $3-4 oil price jump on hurricane fears, I suggest fading it.
