JOLTS data coming up in the US on Tuesday – a quick preview

JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for June is due out in the US on Tuesday morning (10am ET, 1400GMT). For job openings:

• expected is 4.600m
• prior was 4.635m

Deutche Banks says

• the release takes on extra importance ahead of the Jackson Hole event on “Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics”
• Federal Reserve chief Yellen looks at quits “because it reflects workers’ confidence” and “in a tightening labor market, new opportunities can offer higher compensation, so a rising quit rate is generally a reliable leading indicator of emerging wage pressures”
• (Says quits are at a recent high of 1.8%, and are steadily trending higher from a low of 1.3% in early 2010 & 2002-07 average of 2.0% … says quits are normalizing)

BMO says:

• “in JOLTS, the hire and quit rates (at 3.4% and 1.8% in May, respectively) have made little progress during the past few months, while payrolls have been posting solid growth, emphasizing, as the FOMC puts it, the “underutilization of labor resources” despite a relatively low unemployment rate.