11 things to look for in the FOMC minutes:
Yellen after the FOMC meeting
- The minutes will be released October 8, 2014 at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT).
- The minutes are from the Sept 16-17 meeting. Here is the full-text of that statement.
- That statement was notable because the Fed said there “remains significant underutilization of labor resources” when many thought that would be toned down. There will be extensive discussion on employment but it’s somewhat dated since last week’s strong non-farm payrolls report.
- Overall, the Fed saw “risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced”. Some optimism is likely on this front.
- ” Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective” didn’t get much attention when the statement was released but we’ll hear more about it and it could steal the headlines from the minutes.
- The Fed tapered down to $15B/month of purchases and said it “will end its current program of asset purchases at its next meeting” on Oct 30. There was certainly some discussion on how to communicate the end of QE3.
- Reinvestment. The Fed is likely to stop reinvesting expiring Treasury holdings but it’s still up for consideration and was likely debated.
- The Fed said it is likely to keep rates low for “a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends”. Was there discussion on changing this wording?
- Dissent: Fisher said the economy will likely warrant an earlier hike than the forward guidance suggests. Plosser objected to “a considerable time”
- The dot chart: The Fed median saw the Fed funds rate at 1.375% ta the end of 2015. Is that a real representation of the collective?
- We’re also curious to hear other comments on the long-term outlook especially with the long-run forecast at just 2.0-2.3%
