Yeah, FWIW …
Yesterday the Australian Bureau of Statistics dropped the bombshell that the employment figures for July and August were a crock. If you haven’t been following along with this, read this as a start;
OK.
So, the consensus estimate for the September Employment Change is +15,500.
That’s from Bloomberg, who have had to do a very quick job at gathering estimates from economists all over the place. Kudos to them. And also, too, to the economists who have had to revise their estimates at very short notice.
I checked out the distribution of the estimates surveyed by Bloomberg. The consensus seemed a bit low to me.
The ‘big 4′ Australian banks have these as their estimates:
- Westpac +25,000
- NAB +30,000
- ANZ +35,000
- CBA +50,000
(Kudos and thanks to BI for collating those)
So, given those high estimates from the big 4 Australian banks, there are some very low estimates in the whole survey. I don’t want to pick a favourite … but i will anyway and plump for Westpac’s +25,000 estimate.
–
Here are the Bloomberg consensus estimates for the other headline data due today:
Employment Change: expected +15.5K, prior 32.1K
Unemployment Rate: expected 6.1%
Full Time Employment Change, no estimate
Part Time Employment Change, no estimate
Participation Rate, expected is 64.8%
