We have a good amount of data coming out from China on Tuesday, the most important of which will be the estimate for Q3 GDP, to be announced by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Scheduled release time is 0200GMT (21 October 2014).
After the intense market jitters surrounding global growth that really took hold last week, this release is going to be very closely watched.
- The Bloomberg consensus ‘expected’ is +7.2% y/y (prior was +7.5%).
- At 7.2%, it would be the slowest economic growth expansion since the Q1 of 2009.
- The growth target is officially 7.5%, though bouts of weakness have seen officials commenting that somewhere around there (i.e a little lower) would be acceptable.
Some of the recent private forecasts for the growth rate in China over 2014:
- PIMCO – Sees China GDP growth slowing to 6.5% from 7.5%
- World Bank says China to grow at 7.4% in 2014, and 7.2% in 2015
- IMF’s Zhu Min – China can accept a GDP growth of between 7-7.5%
- Goldman Sachs China economist – Stats bureau adjustments to methodology boost GDP by 0.1-0.2%
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Also out from China on Tuesday is:
September retail sales (expected to come in slightly weaker y/y than in August)
- expected is +11.7% y/y, prior +11.9%
Industrial production for September:
- expected is +7.5% y/y, prior was +6.9%
Fixed asset investment
- expected is +16.3% y/y, prior was +16.5%
