Westpac / Melbourne Institute (MI) Leading Index for September,
- The six month annualised deviation from trend growth rate of the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index which indicates the likely pace of economic growth three to nine months into the future fell from –1.07% in August to –1.16% in September.
- eighth consecutive month where the growth rate in the Index has been below trend. That follows 13 consecutive months to February this year when the growth rate was above trend.
- The index continues to indicate that we can expect growth in the Australian economy to stay below trend in the final quarter of 2014 and into the first half of 2015.
- This September print represents the largest negative deviation from trend since November/December 2011
- Disappointingly, the deviation from trend in the annualised growth rate has now fallen back to around those levels we experienced at the start of the easing cycle. The Leading Index is indicating that the lift to momentum which was eventually delivered as a result of the rate cuts appears to have dissipated.
