Headline CPI for Q3: +0.5 % q/q
- expected +0.4%,
- prior was +0.5%
For the y/y, +2.3%
- expected 2.3%, prior 3.0%
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For the ‘trimmed mean’ (which is the measure the RBA pays most heed to):
For the q/q: +0.4%
- expected 0.5%,
- prior 0.7%, revised from 0.8%
For the y/y: +2.5%
- expected 2.7%, prior 2.8% (revised from 2.9%)
–
Weighted median CPI: +0.6% q/q
- expected is 0.5%, prior was 0.6%
For y/y: +2.6%
- expected is 2.6%, prior was +2.6% (revised from2.7%)
–
The RBA might have 99 problems, but inflation ain’t one.
Well within the target band.
Even the prior trimmed mean and weighted median readings revised down.
–
OK … so that’s that then. We get the next inflation numbers from Australia way off in January next year (the 28th).
So, we got 3 months to prepare for that … but here is an early heads up on what the result will be on a y/y basis .. it’ll be even lower!
Why?
Well, the Q4 2013 result was +0.9% q/q (for the trimmed mean) … and that’s gonna dropout of the yearly inflation result. Soooo – no inflation worries for the RBA.
(ps. ‘Favourite/bookmark whatever this post – it will come in handy if I am wrong – you can rub my nose in it)
Check out the graph (red line is the actual, gereen line the ‘expected’):
Inflation falling + add in macroprudential tools to address the house price/financing issues = no rate hikes for a very loooong time in Australia.
