The latest poll of economists from Reuters continues to show only a 50% chance of sovereign QE from the ECB. That’s the same as a Nov 13 poll and showed that views haven’t changed since Draghi’s speech on Friday.
“Various complications mean that the ECB will want to keep QE in its back pocket as a last resort if all else fails,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec.
Most economists believe other measures, already announced, from the ECB could have the desired effect. 30 of 43 economists say the ECB’s balance sheet expansion will be effective but take until the end of 2016 to reach Draghi’s 1 trillion euro goal although there’s no consensus on whether it will boost the economy.
The next frontier is corporate bond buying with most economists surveyed expecting about 150 billion euros in purchases to be announced.
The likelihood of a sovereign QE announcement in December is low. If it happens most economists see it coming some time in the first half of 2015.
