The latest numbers should create some concern that UK households are getting themselves top heavy on debt still even if it is being used to purchase other properties/ goods/services.
Net lending secured on dwellings rose 2.1bln in November compared to +1.4bln expected.
The broader UK economic recovery that the govt and BOE had hoped for is still a long way off. This realisation is nothing new to me, or many readers here, but it all added to the soggy scenario for the pound as 2015 got under way
Friday’s consumer lending data from the Old Lady showed the fastest rate of pace, in the 3 months to November, in nearly a decade. It illustrates that the UK recovery of the past couple of years, amongst the strongest in the world, has been and will continue to be heavily driven by consumption and not manufacturing or construction.
The increased personal borrowing means increased household debt and ultimately makes the impact of interest rate rises that much more dangerous even with moderate wage rises as the govt and BOE are banking on. It’s also noticeable though from today’s data that although net lending to non-financial businesses dropped by GBP149m, lending to small business rose by GBP286m, the biggest increase since records began in May 2011
With the UK general election looming in May the economy is going to be a key battleground for all sides and we can expect a big five months ahead where this line of data and others will be scrutinized like never before
Rising credit and falling economic performance is not a good mix.
The full data from the BOE is available here
Osborne and Carney – Still a lot of work to do between them
