The more I think about it, the more euro shorts make sense here.
- The SNB was a massive marginal buyer of euros that’s gone, or going to be gone.
- The SNB looks like it’s stepped back in and is buying euros right now to stabilize the market. That’s giving the euro a lift but it won’t last.
- This is the strongest sign yet that the ECB will do sovereign QE.
- Negative deposit rates be damned, Europe/Russia have a renewed safe haven destination in the CHF and that makes the euro less enticing.
There’s also an argument to wait for the dust to settle. It’s only a few times a decade where you look at your FX ticker and see a double-digit percentage move.
Today’s FX ticker – for posterity
