ASB RBNZ preview: January ... is a little too soon

A brief preview of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting this week, from NZ bank ASB

Last week's Q4 CPI showed little of the NZD impact the RBNZ is banking on

Added weakness in oil prices will hold inflation lower for longer, further increasing the risk that inflation expectations remain low

Markets are pricing in a high chance of a March cut and fully pricing a 25bp cut by August

We think the January OCR review (9am Thursday) is a little too soon to get a clear signal the RBNZ will cut as early as March, but even so both the March and April OCR windows are now 'live'.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announcement is on Thursday (local time) at 9am. This is 2000GMT on Wednesday 28 January.