Atlanta Fed model for third-quarter GDP increases to 32%
The Atlanta Fed models the forward GDP for the 3rd quarter. It's current estimate comes in at 32%. That is up from 31.7% yesterday.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32.0 percent on September 17, up from 31.7 percent on September 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 39.3 percent to 46.1 percent.
The next estimate will come on September 25.
Although quite impressive, the New York Fed forecasted model shows something much different. There most recent estimate from Friday sees 3rd quarter GDP at 15.63%. That's a big spread as models tried to make sense given the sharp decline in the 2nd quarter and rebound in the 3rd quarter. In other words, take these reports with a grain of salt.
FYI 3rd quarter GDP will be released until October 29.
