The focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes has been diminished somewhat by events following the February meeting
Since the February meeting of the policy board we have had:
- the Statement on Monetary Policy on February 5
- and RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speaking to a parliamentary committee (multiple links, access from here)
Both of which have diminished the focus on the Minutes.
We often look to the Minutes of meetings to get a better feel for what the bank is thinking, but given the further details we have seen in the February 5 Statement and the remarks from Stevens on the 12th
I expect the minutes today will reconfirm what we know of RBA thinking. In summary:
- They are happy with the pace of employment growth - indeed it has exceeded their expectations.
- Yes, there are some issues with the stats, but the overwhelming weight of evidence is sold employment growth.
- The RBA expects the pace of employment may well slow down in coming months.
- The 'transition' in the economy could be quicker, but it is proceeding.
- More capex in non-mining sectors would be welcome
- Inflation is at the low end of the target band and is likely to dip further below it in coming months, which allows scope to ease if deemed necessary
- The RBA is stressing offshore risks, partially because they are concerned with the volatility and risks from (especially) China, but also because they are concerned about the AUD trading higher ... by emphasizing the offshore risks facing Australia the RBA want to cement in traders' minds the dangers still facing the currency
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Due at 0030GMT
