The tl;dr version is:

  • You can expect the RBA to shade the comments in the accompanying statement to a little more hawkish than perhaps previously expected (maybe that’s putting it a little strongly … if you prefer you can expect the RBA to shade the comments in the accompanying statement to a little less dovish than perhaps previously expected).

I don’t think they will be too much in it, but thats the risk as I see it.

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OK, more details.

Read this: Ahead of the RBA today – Deutsche Bank raise their Q2 GDP forecast

Now:

Macquarie:

  • have hugely bumped up their GDP forecast to +0.5% q/q (+3.1% y/y)
  • … they were previously at estimates for a Q2 contraction of -0.1% q/q (+2.5% y/y)

CBA:

  • Q2 GDP forecast is now up to +0.6% q/q
  • Was a 0.3% to 0.5% range previously
  • For the y/y, forecast is +3.2%
  • “Dwelling construction, household consumption and a lift in inventories will make positive contributions to growth. Net exports and government spending will be a drag on Q2 growth”

Westpac:

  • “We have left our forecast at 0.4%qtr, 3.0%yr, with offsetting surprises today
  • The RBA will not be surprised by a 0.4% print for Q2. In their August Statement on Monetary Policy growth was forecast to be 3.0%yr in June 2014, implying a 0.4% increase in Q2.
  • For further detail see our preview bulletin from Friday.
  • Nominal GDP: We have upgraded our forecast for nominal GDP growth from a decline of –0.2% qtr to flat, with the fall in the terms of trade not as large as anticipated, coming in at -4.1% vs Westpac f/c of around -5%.

Moody’s:

  • Forecasting +0.1% q/q, +2.7% y/y
  • Previously was -0.1% & +2.5%

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