Latest Reuters poll to economists on the Bank of Canada
The survey showed that respondents are anticipating the BOC to be on course to raise interest rates to 0.50% in Q4 2022, with 16 of 19 economists expecting at least one rate hike by the end of next year.
As for the coming meeting this week, no change to policy is expected though the central bank is expected to taper its relatively small QE programme again in October, when they provide the next quarterly projections on growth and inflation.
Adding to that, 15 of 18 economists said that the upcoming federal election on 20 September would not have a material impact on the Canadian economic outlook and monetary policy over the medium-term at least.
Some commentary to add a bit of colour to the poll:
"Inflation has firmed significantly and, despite the possibility of a brief period of soft growth, the overall economic recovery remains on track. Against this backdrop the Bank of Canada is on course to shift to less accommodative monetary policy. Indeed, if growth and inflation were to surprise to the upside, an initial rate hike could come earlier than we currently expect." - Wells Fargo
"You're likely looking at a minority government, so they will not get everything they want, no matter who wins. it does look like there will be more spending almost no matter who wins, but again, we don't really know what will go through, so won't really be changing any forecasts, it's just too close to call at this point." - BMO
