BOE's Haldane speaking in Northern Ireland
- Case for raising rates in current environment is some way from being made
- If downside risks materialise BOE could need to loosen, not tighten as next step
- Evidence suggests that UK growth will slow into H2 2015
- Balance of risks to growth and inflation are skewed to the downside
- May be in the early stages of an EM crisis
- Headwinds unlikely to fade quickly
- CB's must consider risk of global rates remaining persistently lower
- Possible solutions to persistently low rates might be higher inflation targets and permanent QE
- Another option would be negative rate, most probably via digital currency
Dovish comments from someone who is fairly middle of the road on the hawk/dove scale. Scrap that I'm getting my members mixed up. He's dovish as they come. He's managed to sink the pound from 1.5640 to 1.5620, though it's back to 1.5632
