Citi on the FOMC, 25 bp cut this month and another by year end

The 25 basis point interest cur from the Fed (July 31) is baked in.

I posted earlier on Barclays who are calling another 50bps to follow soon:

• Barclays on the FOMC - 25bp cut in July, more to come by end of 2019

Citi, on the other hand, are

• 25 in July (and say 50 is a "real possibility")
• 25 by end 2019

Citi see an increased downside risk for the US economy …. but acknowledge:

• that view is clearly not shared by Chair Powell
• July … a 25 basis point cut is likely to provoke two or more dissents, 25 basis points may be the compromise policy outcome
• Following … one additional 25 basis point cut, most likely in September