The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on monetary policy on Tuesday, September 7.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts are expecting the Bank to do a 180 on their decision in July to taper asset purchases. The RBA announced at its July meeting that it would reduce purchases of government bonds to A$4B/week from A$5B/week.
Numerous analysts were expecting that decision to be reversed at the August meeting in light of the COVID-19 outbreaks and associated lockdowns/restrictions. But the RBA held firm. I'm with CBA this time, since the August meeting lockdowns have continued in Australia's largest two states (and largest two cities) with no prospects on the near term horizon that I can see for an exit.
CBA see the RBA t o carry on with AUD 5bn purchases to November
CBA forecasts:
- Q2 GDP (data due September 1 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics) at +0.4% q/q
- Q3 GDP slumping to -4.5% (their prior forecast was -2.75%)
RBA Governor Lowe tends to have a sanguine disposition.
