Euro falls as the door is left wide open on more rate cuts but the effects will garner greater scrutiny
Probably the standout comment from the minutes is this one;
"10 bps rate cut in Dec left room for further reduction if necessary"
While that line in itself is dovish, the actual text of the minutes gives it better context;
"A cut in the deposit facility rate of 10 basis points was seen as unlikely to trigger material negative side effects and was also seen as having the advantage of leaving some room for further downward adjustments, should the need arise. However, the further cut into negative territory would need to be accompanied by close monitoring of the transmission to financial markets, banks and the overall economy, also with regard to possible adverse effects on banks' liquidity management and their demand for central bank reserves.
Going beyond the proposed 10 basis point cut would, in the view of some members, raise issues about increasing side effects over time. In this context, the experience of other central banks in smaller jurisdictions would only partially apply. It would, in particular, raise issues regarding the profitability of banks and other financial institutions, whereby banks could try to recoup possible losses by increasing lending margins, leading to a tightening instead of a further easing in financing conditions - as well as issues regarding the implementation of the APP and the TLTROs."
And on the other side;
"At the same time, some members expressed a preference for a 20 basis point cut in the deposit facility rate at the current meeting, mainly with a view to strengthening the easing impact of this measure and reflecting the view that, to date, no material negative side effects on bank margins and financial stability had emerged."
Without reading too much into it, the argument seems much bigger for those opposed to the 20bp cut than those who were for it. If anything it makes the case that unless we see a marked deterioration in the numbers, like inflation, another cut is going to be a harder sell and this one came as a compromise
The minutes are massive so I've only glossed over them. There are some positives noted (sentiment indicators, credit growth), that enforce the view that the wait and see approach, for now, is the best way forward
Have a read and form your own opinion but for me it looks like the bias is to see the Eurozone on hold going forward