92% of economists see Dec Fed hike
The Wall Street Journal is out with a poll of 63 economists on the Dec 16 Fed decision and 92% of them expect a hike. That's up from 64% in an early-October survey.
There's been a clear bias towards hikes in surveys over the last year while market probabilities have pointed to less of a chance of Yellen raising rates. In August and early September, there was also a strong consensus from economists (although not 92% strong) that the Fed would hike. Even as the minutes ticked down on the Sept 17 decision, more than 50% of economists saw a hike.
The Fed funds market currently shows a 66% percent chance of a hike in December. The main arguments against a Dec hike is that it could roil markets into the delicate year-end period and that inflation is low.
We may get more clarity in the hours ahead with Fed heavyweights Dudley and Fischer on the docket.
