• German Q4 GDP confirmed at +0.4% q/q, +4.0% y/y, as expected
  • Euro zone February economic sentiment 107.8, up from revised 106.8 in January (previous 106.5), better than median forecast 106.8. Consumer inflation expectations 25.7, sharp rise from 20.9 in January. The read is significantly above the long-term average since 1990 of 20.6 points and will be duly noted by the ECB
  • UK CBI retail sales balance +6 in February, sharply lower than +37 in January and much weaker than median forecast of +30. Lowest read since June 2010
  • Moody’s downgrades Cyprus two notches to A2 from Aa3: outlook stable. Cites banking sector’s Greek exposure, competitive concerns
  • Greek 5 year cds rise to 945 bps, up 22 bps on day
  • BUBA’s Dombret: Higher euro zone inflation could prove more persistent than previously thought
  • China industry growth in Jan-Feb likely slower than December’s 13.5% y/y – Industry Ministry official
  • French February consumer confidence steady at 85.0, as expected
  • Cititechs goes long EUR/USD at 1.3716. Stop 1.3495. Initial target 1.40+ and then 1.4283
  • Goldman Sachs: Disruptions in Libya potentially absorbing half of OPEC’s spare capacity. Believes risks now associated with further contagion are much higher. Further disrptions could create severe shortages in oil markets, require demand rationing
  • Deutsche: Oil price is edging closer to a level viewed as a key threat to global growth. Oil price above $120/barrel would be an inflection point for global growth
  • Barclay’s Capital: No downward pressure on oil prices unless OPEC makes explicit move towards higher output

Kinda whippy this morning, to put it mildly. To tie down reasons for some of the movement is nie near impossible. Suffice it to say the swiss franc and japanese yen remain major beneficiaries (if that’s the right word) of the turmoil which is sweeping the Middle East/North Africa at the present time. EUR/CHF is down at 1.2740 from early 1.2790, while EUR/JPY is down at 112.60 from around 113.00

EUR/USD sits at 1.3765, effectively unchanged on the day. Inbetween it’s been mayhem. We initally slumped to 1.3701 before rebounding all the way upto 1.3808 and then back down again. Eastern European names were strong buyers around the lows while hedge fund selling was very notable around the highs.

Stops now seen through 1.3700 and more through 1.3680. Sell orders 1.3810/25 before stops through 1.3835.

USD/JPY down at 81..85 from early 82.05 having been as low as 81.75. Increased risk aversion and markedly lower US treasury yields have helped weigh on the pairing. A US investment was seen buying decent amounts around the low lending some tenuous support.

Cable down at 1.6155 from early 1.6220. The pairing’s inability to break above key resistance area up at 1.6280/00 this week has put it on the defensive. Sell orders noted clustered at 1.6210/20 and then 1.6250/55. Probably stops not far north of there.

Light sell stops seen through 1.6140.

USD/CHF down at .9255 from early .9290 having reached new low of .9238. EUR/CHF down at 1.2740 from early 1.2790 having been as low as 1.2703.