For my money, MNI's Steve Beckner is the best Fedwatcher out there
Beckner has been doing it for a long time. In the press conference today he asked Yellen about mechanically raising rates and she said future hikes very likely won't be on a consistent timeline.
"I strongly doubt that it will mean equally spaced hikes, and it certainly is not the intention of the committee to follow any mechanical formula of that type," she said.
In his post-Fed report, he talks about four carefully crafted messages in Yellen's press conference:
- confidence
- prudence
- gradualism
- flexibility
Beckner mostly recaps the well-worn themes that were emphasized before and after the decision. He highlights the necessity of Fed forecasts coming to fruition on inflation.
He writes:
"Key to this 'reasonable confidence' about inflation is the belief by Yellen and most of her colleagues that continued reductions in labor slack, the abatement of "transitory" drags on inflation (namely energy prices and dollar appreciation) and anchored inflation expectations.
But what if those assumptions prove wrong? Then the Fed will 'adjust policy,' Yellen said repeatedly."
So the takeaway is that the Fed has faith in inflation but it could quickly be rattled.
