I just received an email from a very, very smart friend … who happens to be a great analyst too!
Regarding the Aussie Q3 GDP data and the outlook for the RBA …
- doesn’t make for good reading in the breakdown. Household consumption running around +1.6% yoy. And mining investment wasn’t really that much of a drag. Wait until Q4 CPI in Jan. The Q4 2013 qoq numbers that drop out are +0.9% for the trimmed mean and weighted median, and a 0.8% for the headline. With all yoy numbers hovering around the mid range of the RBA target of 2-3%, a low reading (+0.4% across the board) does have CPI yoy at the bottom end of the band. Another low reading for Q1 (due late April) sees the yoy numbers below the 2% threshold, bringing May’15 into play.
Yep …
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While I am at it … recent chatter
- Barclays push back their expectation for the RBA to hike rates
- Deutsche Bank tipping two rate cuts from the RBA in 2015
- The RBA made its case for a lower Australian dollar more forcefully today
- HSBC – Further RBA rate cuts ‘unlikely’
- Goldman Sachs – At 85 cents the RBA views the Australian dollar as still overvalued
