More on the RBNZ's new OCR projection

The news is here: RBNZ will be publishing interest rate projections from November

Interest.co.nz have more up now. I'm passing it on as I know how serious an issue insomnia can be. I hope this helps.

• the RBNZ has issued the below graph, taken from the August MPS, which has had the official OCR projection added in.

• It appears to indicate two things: One, that a drop of the OCR to a historic low of 1.75% on November 10 appears virtually 'locked in' and that two, the RBNZ appears to be forecasting a future level of about 1.6%.
• In reality there will be no such thing as an OCR of 1.6%, so, the projection (which will be updated next month), shows that as of August the RBNZ was having a bob each way as to whether it saw the low point of interest rates in this cycle at 1.75% or at 1.5%.

(Bolding is mine ... "a bob each way" means a 50/50 bet in case you are not familiar with the phrase).

Today's announcement doesn't really add anything new to the projection of the future OCR. NZD dropped a little regardless, but is retracing the move as I update: