Nomura analyst in Sydney Martin Whetton is one of the few not expecting a New Zealand rate hike again on July 24.

Whetton cites:

  • With the NZD around 2 cents higher than at the June meeting
  • CPI undershooting, along with other data other data since the June meeting
  • Therefore the RBNZ has scope pause in its cycle
  • “We note the RBNZ, like the Reserve Bank of Australia has held concerns over the inflow of investor money to the NZD market. We noted in our Rates Insights that Japanese flows continues to look at NZD markets and the latest Toshin data shows an increase in NZD buying, as well as 29 consecutive months of NZD asset purchases. This adds to NZD strength”