On the Australian dollar in the wake of yesterday's GDP data for April to June 2018
This via a Credit Agricole client note, I've summarised, bolding mine also:
- Australia's GDP data … YoY growth is above the RBA's estimate of potential at 3%
- the RBA already knows this … So while the GDP data are good news, they are not likely to shift the RBA on rates as good cyclical data need to be accompanied by stronger wages growth and inflation data to get it moving on rates
- We remain of the view that with the RBA on hold, external factors will be the main driver of the AUD and these factors remain a negative for the currency. So AUD spikes on the back of good domestic news should be sold into unless they threat the shift the RBA on rates.
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This from CA on China data yesterday also noteworthy IMO:
- soft China Caixin PMI services data, which our China economist notes is showing signs of the government's property cooling measures are beginning to impact on the services sector
