From PIMCO over the weekend: 3 bond market signs pointing to US growth & pressure on Fed to hike

They note:

  • a rebounding U.S. economy
  • stability in commodity prices
  • encouraging signs in Europe

These "all suggest that the risks of a further decline in U.S. inflation have diminished - and that pressures therefore are building for the Federal Reserve to consider increasing its policy rate"

Highlight 3 gauges in particular ... providing strong signals about the bond market's outlook for U.S. economic growth and Fed policy:

1. Treasury yields

  • Yields have moved well off their lows and for many maturities are at their 2015 highs.
  • Well above its 2015 low set in January amid signs of a sharp slowdown in U.S. growth ... the yield increase suggests the opposite is bow occurring

2. Yield curve

  • A historically reliable indicator
  • Yield curve has been steepening of late
  • Historically, this has signaled faster economic growth that the Fed often tries to quell via rate hikes

3. Forward money market rates

  • Signaling a rise in expectations for future Fed rate hikes

Concludes with:

If corroborated by economic data, a Fed rate hike will arrive, possibly by September, placing upward pressure on yields and boosting market volatility more generally.