RBA April policy board meeting minutes are released at 0130GMT.
There was no change to the cash rate target at the meeting (none was expected).
The announcement after the meeting was notable as it did not describe the Australian dollar as “uncomfortably high”. The market will dissect the minutes for any further discussion of this.
In the statement, too, the RBA alluded to being a little more optimistic on the outlook for the labour market – again, the minutes will be pored over for more on this.
The AUD has been well supported despite the turmoil in equities, it is barely off from recent highs. The AUD strength, along with the resilience of USD/JPY have been notable during the sharemarket selling. It looks like the AUD buying is continuing … but having said this, there is obviously selling taking place above 0.9400 as well.
Any stronger indications from the RBA in the minutes that they are more comfortable with the AUD at these higher levels (or resignation that maybe there is little they can do about it at this stage) should lend further support to it. Same with the labour market; if the RBA is more sanguine here it reduces further the likelihood of more interest rate cuts (these seem well off the table for the time being … may change with future data, of course). If, on the other hand, the minutes express greater concerns over the level of the AUD or on the outlook for employment than was evident in the statement, the AUD should test lower in the aftermath. I’ll be back with the orderboard and levels to watch soon.
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Note also, an hour later (0230GMT), there is a speech from Guy Debelle, an RBA Assistant Governor, with a Q&A following.
