I found this interesting from ASB, a snippet from their their preview of the central banks this week.
- Wednesday's OCR announcement by the RBNZ is delicately poised. We expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR twice this year, with a cut at this week's announcement and a second one in August. But we see the probability of a cut this week as only marginally above 50%. Market pricing is similarly poised. As at the time of writing, markets have nearly priced in a 60% chance of a cut on Wednesday. Notably though, the market has priced in a full cut by August.
- … the RBA decision is also going to be close-run thing. There, markets have priced in a 40% probability of a cut tomorrow. Meanwhile, in contrast to our NZ OCR view, we expect the RBA will remain on hold this year.
I bolded that bit - a very strong against consensus call from ASB indeed.
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I'll have more to come on both the RBNZ and RBA this week.
Previously:
RBNZ:
- NZD traders - RBNZ preview (Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting
- One for the NZD traders - RBNZ preview
- NZD traders - RBNZ meet this week - Shadow Board recommends on hold
RBA:
- Westpac sees asymmetric risk for the Australian dollar on the RBA
- Morgan Stanley like the AUD, say no RBA rate cut next week
- AUD: Beset by weak domestic data, calls for imminent RBA rate cuts ... buy it anyway!
- Eight reasons why the RBA will cut rates this week
- Westpac says the case 'indisputable' for an RBA rate cut ... but not in May
AUD - NAB CEO has dismissed calls for an RBA interest rate cut
