The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision is due at 0430GMT on 7 May 2019.
Earlier previews can be found linked in this post:
Market pricing has converged on a coin toss, pretty much evenly split between a 25bp cut and an on hold decision.
If its on hold the Bank is very likely indeed to state an explicit easing bias. On Friday this week the RBA publish their latest quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy where they will (more correctly, are expected to … but they will) downgrade both their GDP and CPI outlooks. Once the Bank downgrades these from already poor levels they are going to look pretty silly if they haven't cut rates at the meeting today. If they don't cut but explicitly state an easing bias they'll get away with not looking quite so silly. So those are the two alternatives, ease or say they'll ease.
Complicating matters is the federal election due on May 18. For the Bank to make a rate cut decision 11 days out from a general election is a big call. Yeah, its said they are independent and the election timing is of no consequence. As if. Careers are at stake ….
Current readings of the situation centre on the take that if they cut its not good news for the government, its an indication of a weak economy. I imagine the government could frame a cut as a reward for their great work keeping inflation low …
I'll be tossing a coin soon and will be back with the prediction.
